How Things Look Around the W

Now that we’re past the All Star Break, it’s time to take a step back and revisit the standings before the playoff push kicks into high gear.

The Lynx have the best record in the league and their ranking as first on point differential tells you it’s no mirage. The fact that they have done this without Napheesa Collier is mind boggling and should win Cheryl Reeve a Coach of the Year award. Now that Collier is back, I can’t see the case for anyone else as the favorite to win it all.

I had them fifth last time I did this exercise, commenting that their defense was great, but I wasn’t sure their offense was good enough. Well, their offense is still mediocre at best—only the Sun and Mystics score fewer points per game—but their defense is SO good that they just had a 9-game winning streak and have the second-best net point differential in the league. They allow opponents to score just 76.4 points. The second stingiest team allows 82.5! That gap is exacerbated by the fact that the Valks play at the slowest tempo in the league, but even if you adjust for pace and look at points per 100 possessions, the Valks still have the second best differential and by far the best defense while their offense climbs up to the middle of the pack.

When the defending champs are on, they look like they could run it back again. However, when they’re not on, things can get ugly: they’ve lost games this year by 33, 30, and 34. I almost ranked them second anyway as A’ja Wilson is clearly the best player in the world right now, and if she wins a fourth title in 5 years, it starts to get hard to argue that anyone else is the greatest player of all time. They’ll probably be focused once the playoffs are here, but they might not have home court advantage when it matters.

I see a bit of a gap after those top three teams, and I would respect just about any ordering of these next 3 or 4. I went with Dallas in fourth simply because they have the fourth best record right now. They’re clearly done with their rebuild and ready to start making playoff runs. Paige Bueckers is just in year 2, but she might already be the best player in the league not named A’ja Wilson.

It’s been a bit of a struggle this year both for the Fever overall and for Caitlin Clark specifically, but both look like things might finally be coming together. That 45 & 10 game against the Storm was impressive, but even more important was the joy she was playing with. If she can maintain that level of swagger and stop missing games due to injury, the sky is the limit for this team. After all, they almost made the finals last year while Caitlin was injured because they’ve got two other stars in Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell who are just as good as she is.

The Dream were flying high with the best record in the league earlier in the season, but have hit a wall lately. They finally got Brionna Jones back last week and she’s going to be the key to seeing whether they can climb back up toward the top of the standings.

The Liberty were briefly healthy enough to win the Commissioner’s Cup, but they’re 4-8 in their last 12 and had a 4-game losing streak. I still see them as a contender to win it all if they can get everyone back, but they’re barely above .500 at this point and a low playoff seed is going to make their life hard.

There’s a large gap after those top 7 teams, in my opinion. Each of them has a net differential of at least +2.3 and all but the Liberty are above +4 and with a winning percentage of .615+. Meanwhile, everyone else has a net differential of -2.2 or worse and all but the Mystics have a record well below .500. One of these other 8 teams is going to get to make the playoffs and fresh off an upset of the Aces right now, the Mystics seem like the best bet. They’re the youngest team in the league, but they have a couple of All Stars and have been playing consistently good basketball. Part of me wonders if they’ll consider trading for a veteran point guard as that’s their weakest position and could have a big impact on their ability to make the playoffs. 

They have been bad with Kelsey Plum injured, but the hole they dug for themselves isn’t all that deep and she’s about to come back. They’re probably disappointed that all their win-now moves have resulted in a borderline playoff team instead of a contender, but I’m pretty sure they’d much rather make the playoffs than miss them yet again.

The Tempo have been trying their best to stay in playoff contention while they wait for two of their starters to return from injury. Brittany Sykes and Kiki Rice could fuel a run to that last playoff spot if they can join Marina Mabrey in the backcourt.

I don’t think they can make the playoffs, but I have to acknowledge that Chicago has been playing better since they got Courtney Van der Sloot back. They’re 5-5 in their last 10.

The Sun are also 5-5 in their last 10 games. Brittany Griner has been playing well, as has Leila Lacan.

The Fire are actually in ninth place in the standings as I type this, but I think it’s fake. They have the second worst point differential in the league, and their record is a reflection of them winning all but one of their close games. I’m rooting for the smoke and mirrors to keep working because I want the Storm to have better draft lottery odds than Portland, but I don’t think they can actually maintain that mark.

I remain surprised that they got this much worse when their only major loss from last season’s contender was Satou Sabally, but I suspect the new freedom of movement enforcement has also hurt them. At this point, I think they are out of time to get things together and this is just going to be a lost season. Now the interesting question is whether they blow the team up moving forward or do they think they can fix things for next year.

Our point differential says we’re better than this and our record is a consequence of losing all but one of our 12 close games, but the truth is we do have the worst record in the league and haven’t shown any signs of improving our late-game execution.