The Seattle Storm dropped both their games this week to fall to 3-6 overall. On the one hand, Seattle has yet to field their full starting lineup, with Dominique Malonga’s stay in concussion protocol stretching into its 3rd week and Ezi Magbegor’s off-season foot injury not even scheduled for reevaluation until mid-June. On the other hand, the schedule is about to get harder so they might be stuck on 3 wins for a while even if Dom is about to come back.
It wasn’t all doom and gloom this week, though. 19-year old Awa Fam continues to look comfortable as her playing time ramps up. She has come off the bench in all 3 of her games, but played fully 24 minutes on Saturday against Toronto (scoring 7 and pulling down 5 rebounds). In addition, Jordan Horston played by far her best offensive game of the year on Saturday. Her defense has been good all year as she returns from an ACL injury, but she was averaging just 3 points a game with a season high of 8. The Storm’s plan on Saturday was to exploit Toronto’s lack of size by attacking the paint and Jordan was a big part of that, scoring 4 layups in the first half and then both a 3-pointer and a mid-range jump shot in the second. Throw in a couple of free throws and that added up to 15 points (on 6 of 11 shooting) in addition to her usual good defense (4 steals).
Wednesday: Mystics get their revenge
Three days after being held to 7 points in the 2nd quarter and losing 85-97, the Mystics held the Storm to 8 points in the 2nd quarter and beat us 78-64. The game was a mirror image in many ways, with the Mystics feasting in the paint instead of struggling (Shakira Austin in particular had a great game with 18 points, 13 rebounds, and 5 assists) and with Seattle struggling to hit outside shots (22% from 3-point range as opposed to 46% last Sunday). In an even more stark mirroring, the Storm had their highest point total of the year in that win but their lowest point total of the year in this loss. We definitely miss Dom Malonga, who continues to work her way through concussion protocols. (She had suffered an additional concussion earlier this year while playing for France so you can certainly understand everyone’s desire not to bring her back too quickly.)
Saturday: Toronto blows open a close game by forcing turnovers and drawing fouls
Dom missed her 6th straight game and the Storm continued to start Jordan Horston at power forward, which is a bit of a stretch for her. She’s got the height and the wingspan to guard opposing 4’s, but they all out-weigh her by a good bit and her lithe body is better suited for guarding wings than banging with post players. In addition, Jade Melbourne’s best games all came when she was coming off the bench rather than starting at point guard. If Dom is going to be out for a while longer, I wonder if Coach Raman will consider starting Awa Fam so she can return Jordan and Jade to their more natural positions. However, in this game Toronto didn’t have the size to punish the Storm for going small so sticking with this lineup made sense.
The first quarter looked a lot like the game these teams played two weeks ago, with Seattle turning it over 5 times while Toronto got hot from 3-point range and led by as much as 11. Seattle cranked up the defense in the second quarter, holding Toronto to 16 points and cutting their lead down to 1. The Storm also generated a bunch of good looks in the paint with nifty passes, but missed several layups that could have given them the lead.
The second half started well for the Storm and they had a 49-47 lead in the middle of the 3rd quarter, but a stretch of turnovers really hurt them, as did their inability to play defense without fouling. Toronto closed the quarter on a 19-5 run in about 3 minutes and suddenly led by 14. You’d like to blame things on a massive free throw disparity: Toronto hit all 23 of their free throws through 3 quarters while the Storm were just 3 for 4. However, the actual difference in fouls called was just 14-9 and it didn’t feel unfair in real time, it just felt like Toronto was effective at driving into contact and drawing shooting fouls.
Turnovers continued to be a problem in the 4th quarter. The Storm had been right there in the middle of the 3rd, but were never close in the 4th. The only drama left was whether Toronto could set the all-time WNBA record for free throws made without a miss. The previous record was 27 for 27 and Toronto got to 31 of 31 before they finally missed one with 58 seconds left in the game.
Player of the Week
Natisha Hiedeman led the team in points again this week, and tied with Jade Melbourne for the lead in assists. However, her game against the Mystics was quite inefficient (and I gave her PotW last week), so I’m going another direction. I almost gave this to Jordan Horston based on her breakout performance against the Tempo (plus she also led the team in steals), but ultimately I’ve decided I want to recognize the good work Mackenzie Holmes has been doing. She hasn’t started any of the Storm’s 9 games, and she’s only averaging 16 minutes a game, but she’s leading the team in rebounds! Not just for the week (where her 17 were fully 7 more than 2nd place Awa Fam), but for the whole season! Her energy off the bench has been visibly infectious and she has the kind of hustle that means 50-50 balls wind up in her hands at least 80% of the time. Mack even managed to lead the team in +/- this week, posting a +1 in a week where the Storm lost their two games by a combined 35 points. (!!) She’s undersized for a 5, and doesn’t have the 3-point shot (yet?) she’d need to be a truly effective 4, but she’s so scrappy that she seems like she might be able to carve out a rotation role for herself (and, more importantly, a long-term career in the W) even once the Storm get the rest of their post players back from injury.
Is it ok for us to win games?
There was some consternation on social media from Storm fans when we beat Connecticut last week, a game at least one journalist referred to as a “tank-off.” While I do think the primary goal this year is to build for the future, I for one do not think the Storm should be trying to lose as many games as possible. There is so much player movement in the W (including trades, free agency, and international player signings) that, unlike in the NBA, I think it’s more important to build a culture that other players want to be a part of than it is to maximize your odds of a high draft pick. In addition, trying to win lets you pass judgment on what your players are capable of as well as what schemes are working (this last bit is particularly important with a first-year head coach).
One key difference with the NBA is that the W uses 2-year cumulative rankings to determine lottery odds. So for the 5 teams that miss the playoffs this year, their chance to get the #1 overall pick is determined not by their spot in the standings this year, but rather by their cumulative winning percentage over this year and last year. For example, Connecticut was quite bad last year, winning just 11 games, whereas the Storm went 23-21. In order for us to have better odds of the #1 pick than Connecticut, we’d have to finish 12 games below them this year. That’s just not gonna happen. Connecticut might not even win 12 games all season! (I actually think they’ll be better once Leila Lacan starts playing, but the point still stands: they have a massive head start on getting the maximum odds.) We could potentially be trying to be bad for two seasons in order to get the best odds of a good pick 2 years from now, but that seems like a conversation you have next off-season, after seeing how things go between now and then.
Interestingly, the worst team from last year is currently in position to make the playoffs. Dallas is done rebuilding and seems like a very legitimate playoff contender to me. Chicago (who was 2nd worst, tied with the Sun) also brought in a number of veteran free agents in an effort to win-now, and that effort seemed to be working until the season-ending injury to Rickea Jackson. They don’t control their own first round pick, though, so they will likely keep trying to win. The Washington Mystics were the 4th-worst team last season, finishing 7 games worse than we did, so they seem quite likely to finish below us in the lottery standings. I think our best realistic lottery odds for this year are to be jockeying with the two expansion teams (and maybe Chicago) for positions 3-5. The expansion teams’ 2-year winning percentages will just be based on their record this year so we’d have to wind up several games below them to make up for our .523 mark in 2025. Before the season started I wouldn’t have thought too much of our chances there, but both lottery teams have started surprisingly well, boasting records of 6-4 and 5-4 right now.
https://www.tankathon.com/wnba does a great job of tracking the standings and the odds. Currently the Storm are 5th and thus have a 7% chance of winning the #1 overall pick in the lottery (though LA is pushing for a playoff spot and very unlikely to stay 4th). If we were focused on trying to lose maybe we could get down to third and a 16% chance at that #1 overall pick, but I genuinely believe we’re better off building up our reputation as a place that players want to be. We already have a reputation as having a class organization, with a great new practice facility, and arguably the best fans in the league (shout out to my fellow Storm Crazies). You can see this pay off when players are making free agency decisions. For example, when Skylar Diggins and Nneka Ogwumike decided they wanted to team up a couple of years ago, they decided to do that in Seattle even though neither had played for us before. W players have also traditionally held a lot of leverage when it comes to trades, and can often force their way wherever they want to go. The Storm will be well-positioned for off-season trading with potentially 3 star post players and only 2 spots for them in our starting lineup.
I think our biggest priority this season should be sorting out what we have already, and what we need going forward. How well does it work to have all 3 of Ezi, Dom, and Awa? Do we need to find a starting point guard or will one of Jade/T/Zia/Taina Mair step into that role well enough to claim it long-term? How good are Sonia Raman and her schemes? Juju Watkins is awesome, but even the worst team is still going to be twice as likely to miss out on her than get the chance to draft her. Plus we don’t have a realistic chance to be that worst team anyway, and she could even decide to go back to USC for another season if she wants to. I wouldn’t want to sacrifice any of our ability to answer those key questions just to try to get a 5% better chance at drafting her. I’d rather try to build something that works, knowing we have many ways we can add to it when we’re ready.
Around the W
We’re almost a month into the season and I’m going to take my first stab at some power rankings. This season continues to show a tremendous amount of parity, with every team getting beaten in at least 2 of their first 7 games, and every team having at least 2 wins so far. The result is a whole bunch of close and interesting games. It’s been a really fun season to watch so far and shows every sign of continuing to be.
- Las Vegas Aces (5-3) – I don’t care that they’ve lost three times, they are the best team. They have the best player, one of the best coaches, and more depth than they had while winning 3 of the last 4 titles. Mostly they lose because they lose focus. That won’t be an issue in the playoffs.
- Atlanta Dream (5-2) – They have had the best record for much of the season despite their starting center (Brionna Jones) missing every game so far. They had a top 4 team last year and then added Angel Reese without losing anything important so this isn’t a surprise and I expect them to stay in the mix for the top spot all season.
- Minnesota Lynx (6-2) – How does Cheryl Reeve keep doing this?! Between free agency and the expansion draft they got absolutely gutted, losing half their rotation (2 starters and also their 2 best bench players.) Meanwhile their best player is injured (and will be out a while longer). How on earth are they 6-2? That’s the best record in the league right now! It does help that they got to draft Olivia Miles, who looks like the obvious Rookie of the Year so far, but there were plenty of people who thought they should draft Awa Fam or Lauren Betts given that their post room was injured, gone, and gone. Natasha Howard was not the most heralded free agent signing, but might go down as the most impactful. Ultimately, though, the key to the Lynx is also the reason I keep describing Becky Hammon as merely “one of the best coaches.” They have Cheryl Reeve pulling the strings and no one else does.
- Dallas Wings (5-3) – While they have 3 losses already, all 3 are to teams above them in this ranking, 2 were quite close, and they also have wins against the Aces, Liberty, and Fever. Alanna Smith hasn’t delivered on the max contract Dallas gave her in free agency to pry her away from Minnesota (and it might be time to start wondering how much of her Defensive Player of the Year run last year was due to Cheryl Reeve’s system and/or how much she’s being hurt by the new points of emphasis on freedom of movement foul calls), however everyone else they added has been great. Jess Shepard is putting up triple doubles, Azzi Fudd is forcing her way into a starting role, and Awak Kuier looks ready for the W this time around.
- Golden State Valkyries (5-3) – The Valk’s defense is otherworldly. It was already great last year and then they added the best perimeter defender in the league in Gabby Williams. They haven’t entirely figured out their halfcourt offense, but they force so many turnovers that let them play in transition they might not have to.
- New York Liberty (5-4) – They’re playing quite badly right now, for them (somehow losing twice to Portland), but they’ll get things figured out. Getting their defensive-minded players (Fiebich and Laney) onto the court will help.
- Indiana Fever (4-4) – 6 points in their Saturday loss to Portland is going to cause plenty of angst in the Caitlin Clark Industrial Content Complex. Caitlin and their offense are going to be fine, but I am worried that their defense really misses Natasha Howard. If they can figure out how to get to league average or better on defense then we can upgrade them from “in the mix” to “true title contender.” How crazy is it that there’s 7 teams right now that you could easily imagine making the finals?
- Portland Fire (6-4) – I don’t think I actually believe in them, but at 6-4 (and with wins over both the Liberty (twice) and Fever), I can’t put them any lower than this right now. I do enjoy the idea that they’re pulling a reverse Ted Lasso, with a British manager who looks at the game a little differently than we do putting his stamp on more wins than expected. (Shout out to Seerat Sohi of the Ringer WNBA Show who was the first person I saw make this analogy.)
- Los Angeles Sparks (4-4) – Started slowly, but then got some big wins, but then Plum rolled her ankle. The offense looks great (and Plum shouldn’t be out long), but the defense will ultimately determine how good they can be.
- Toronto Tempo (5-4) – They spent a lot for Mabrey and Sykes, but failed in their attempt to spend money on a post player to compliment them because the Mystics matched their max offer to Shakira Austin. They are on pace to set the WNBA record for most 3-pointers attempted (at 30 per game), and when Mabrey is hitting shots they’re scary, but she’s never been able to do that consistently.
- Chicago Sky (3-5) – They looked like a playoff team before Rickea Jackson tore her ACL. I fell in love with Skylar Diggins and her competitiveness while she was leading the Storm the last two years, but I’m not sure she has enough to work with now.
- Phoenix Mercury (2-7) – The accusation that they failed to replace Satou Sabally seems fair so far, but I want to see more now that Monique Akoa Makani has shown up before writing them off. Ultimately, they are the team most likely to suffer the most due to the new freedom of movement emphasis so I am skeptical that they can get back to last year’s level.
- Seattle Storm (3-6) – I’m rooting for them, but in my heart I think their current record is a product of a very easy opening schedule. (Note that all 3 of their wins are versus teams below them in this ranking, but they’ve also lost twice to those same teams.)
- Washington Mystics (3-4) – Frisky at times, but extremely young. The entire roster has a grand total of 12 years of previous WNBA experience (the same as Stephanie Dolson).
- Connecticut Sun (2-8) – They have been by far the worst team so far, but they are 1-0 since Leila Lacan finally started playing. One simple but very effective way of ranking teams is point differential. You just look at points per game minus points given up per game. The 2nd worst team in the W by this metric is the Mystics at -3.7 points per game. The best is the Lynx at +9.3. The Sun are at -12.5!
Next Week
The schedule starts to get tougher next week as 6 of the next 7 Storm opponents are currently in position to make the playoffs. They play at Dallas on Monday then return home to face Phoenix on Wednesday. Phoenix, who was in the finals last year and still has Alyssa Thomas, is somehow the one “easy” opponent in this stretch. Next week wraps up with a national TV game against Minnesota at 10am pacific time on Saturday. It’s a battle of the only two current franchises with 4 titles (though Houston will join this tie when they reenter the league next season).
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