NBA Takes “Significant Step” Towards Expansion

After years of speculation and hope, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver delivered news that Seattle basketball fans have been waiting to hear: the league is officially beginning the start of the plans for the preliminary stages of the early part of the expansion process.

Rejoice, Seattle!

Okay, Silver’s actual announcement Tuesday night was a bit more straightforward than that. The NBA’s Board of Governors has authorized two existing committees to conduct an in-depth analysis of expansion’s economic and operational impacts. It’s the first concrete step toward potentially bringing professional basketball back to Seattle.

“It’s really day one,” Silver said following the Board of Governors meeting in Las Vegas. “A lot of analysis still needs to be done and nothing’s been predetermined one way or another and without any specific timeline. We’re going to be as thorough as possible and look at all the potential issues.”

Well, at least the NBA will never be accused of of moving too quickly on expansion.

But hey, at least it’s an official process now. Silver called the decision a “significant step” and “something we were not able to do before,” even if it feels incremental in the bigger picture. Everything is incremental.

What Comes Next

While Silver didn’t name specific cities during the announcement, Seattle has consistently been identified as the top expansion candidate alongside Las Vegas. When asked about Seattle specifically, Silver was complimentary: “It’s an incredible market. I wish standing here as the commissioner, I had lots of teams to dispense to many different markets who are interested in NBA basketball.”

The reasons for Seattle’s strong position are straightforward. Climate Pledge Arena is already built and NBA-ready, eliminating the arena headache that sank the original Sonics. The fanbase has been waiting patiently (okay, impatiently) for 17 years and remains passionate about basketball. The corporate landscape can absolutely support another major sports franchise, and there’s an ownership group led by Samantha Holloway and the Kraken organization that’s ready to go.

New franchises could command fees of at least $5 billion each, distributed among existing owners. The NBA’s new $76 billion media rights deal starting this fall adds another layer of economic complexity to consider.

However, Silver acknowledged legitimate concerns about “potentially selling equity in the league and the possible impact to the on-court product by adding more teams.” The league is also dealing with expansion efforts in Europe and various media rights challenges in existing markets.

Silver described the sentiment among owners as “curiosity” rather than urgency: “The appetite in the room I would define more as curiosity and more as let’s do the work.”

Instead of forming a dedicated expansion committee, the NBA is using existing “advisory finance” and “audit and strategy” committees representing roughly half the league’s 30 owners.

“I think the next step is looking at specific markets,” Silver explained, “understanding what the opportunities in those markets are, understanding the facilities that are available to us to play in, understanding the level of interest from local businesses, understanding the overall appetite in those markets that are expressing interest to us.”

The Unsavory Alternative to Expansion

But what happens if the NBA’s analysis concludes that expansion isn’t the right move? There’s another path to getting NBA basketball back to Seattle, though it’s one that would leave a bittersweet taste given our history:

Relocation.

Portland’s Trail Blazers are currently for sale following Paul Allen’s death, and Silver dropped a significant piece of information about their situation. “One of the factors there is that the city of Portland likely needs a new arena, so that will be part of the challenge for any new ownership group coming in,” Silver said. “But certainly it would be our preference that team remain in Portland.”

Arena issues were exactly what drove the Sonics out of Seattle in 2008. This is an area of deep concern for Seattle’s I-5 neighbors.

Reports also suggest the Oklahoma City Thunder might be up for sale soon. While not a high possibility, there’s a nonzero chance this is a real thing that happens.

For Seattle fans, the prospect of gaining a team through relocation would be bittersweet at best. They know better than anyone the pain of losing their NBA team. Taking another city’s team, even if that team is struggling with its own arena or ownership issues, isn’t exactly the clean slate that expansion would provide.

But if the NBA decides that 30 teams is the right number and expansion isn’t happening, relocation might be the only realistic path forward. Seattle has the arena, the market, and the ownership group ready to go. If a struggling franchise needs a new home, Climate Pledge Arena would solve their problems immediately.

Silver dismissed suggestions of internal conflict among owners about expansion, saying “there was no sense in the room that people were taking sides.” But when asked what he’d tell Seattle fans hoping for something more concrete, his response was measured: “I’d say to them thank you for your interest. We have not committed to expanding in the past. I just think we also have this greater obligation to expand, if we do so, in a very deliberate fashion, in a way that makes sense holistically for the league.”

The committees will now begin their analysis, with the Board of Governors expected to meet again in September. Don’t expect major announcements, but it’s another milestone in a process that’s finally, officially underway.

For the first time in 17 years, there’s an official process inside the NBA that could lead to the Sonics’ return. Just don’t expect this to happen quickly. As Silver made clear, “It is truly a complicated issue,” and this is still the NBA we’re talking about. They don’t do anything without analyzing it thoroughly first.

The process has finally begun. Now comes the waiting. (Well, more waiting.)