NBA Commissioner Adam Silver gave us the most concrete timeline yet for potential league expansion, and for us waiting for the Sonics to come back, this is actually meaningful news.
On Thursday, speaking before Game 1 of the NBA Finals in Oklahoma City (which, you know, is where the Sonics ended up), Silver indicated that the Board of Governors could authorize a formal exploration process as soon as their July meeting in Las Vegas.
“We have an owners’ meeting in July in Las Vegas, and (NBA expansion) will be on the agenda to take the temperature of the room,” Silver said. “My sense is, at that meeting, they’re going to give direction to me and my colleagues at the league office that we should continue to explore it.”
Adam Silver’s tonal shift
Silver has spent the better part of a decade basically telling interested parties “we’re not there yet” without giving any sense of when “there” might actually be. The tone has shifted, subtly but definitively. We now have an actual date where expansion could move from speculation to formal evaluation.
After years of “we’ll address it eventually” responses, the NBA now has an actual specific meeting date where expansion could move from speculation to formal evaluation.
If owners approve moving forward in July, it would trigger the start of a process that has been notably absent from previous expansion discussions. A formal process would include forming a committee within the Board of Governors to examine options and would allow Silver and league staff to begin taking meetings with prospective ownership groups from interested cities.
“If a decision is made that there should be further exploration by the league office and presumably a committee of team owners, it would be more of a formal process,” Silver explained. “I want to be fair to everyone, so I don’t want to have meetings with some and not others.”
The league would evaluate markets, economic opportunities, and media prospects for potential expansion cities. In other words, the exact sort of thing that Seattle has been preparing for years and is fully ready for.
Exercising cautious optimism (emphasis on “cautious”)
Silver was careful to temper expectations, emphasizing that expansion isn’t “automatic” even if the formal process begins.
“I don’t think it’s automatic, because it depends on your perspective on the future of the league,” Silver said. “Expansion, in a way, is selling equity in the league and if you believe in the league you don’t necessarily want to add partners.”
Silver’s “selling equity” comment is worth remembering if expansion talks stall. The math is real simple: 30 owners splitting league income versus 32. Yes, that will be offset somewhat by a gigantic expansion fee, but that is a one-time payment while the revenue dilution is permanent. Even with expansion fees estimated at $3-6 billion per team, owners would be trading annual revenue streams that compound over decades for a single payout and they may not want that. That fundamental resistance to diluting their share could ultimately matter more than market attractiveness or fan demand.
But Silver also acknowledged that there are “underserved markets in the United States and elsewhere” that “deserve to have NBA teams.”
No, this is not an announcement that the Sonics are back. It’s not even an announcement that the league is going to expand. Everything is a “no” right up until the point it becomes a “yes.” But for markets that have been waiting for expansion news (ahem!), Silver’s comments represent the most definitive timeline the league has provided since the Sonics left for OKC 17 years ago. This is a slow process, a frustrating process, a deliberate process, but it’s also one that has real momentum behind it. The clearest expansion timeline about the NBA’s potential return to Seattle came from Oklahoma City, the place where Seattle’s basketball team now lives.
Oh, the irony.
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