Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority CEO Steve Hill recently told ClutchPoints that Las Vegas has “the best foot to put forward of any city out there” for NBA expansion. He’s got three “credible groups” ready to bring a team to Sin City, and hey, “the experience around any game in Las Vegas is elevated because it’s here.”
Vegas sports has been on a roll recently. The Vegas Golden Knights of the NHL won the Stanley Cup two years ago. The Raiders moved from Oakland and seem to be doing fine (well, fine by Raiders standards; we’re grading on a curve here). The WNBA’s Las Vegas Aces won back-to-back championships. Even the Oakland A’s are heading there in 2028 (although that’s more desperation than aspiration).
But “the best foot to put forward of any city?” I understand getting caught up in the excitement, but let’s pump the brakes just a little here.
Seattle Has the Arena Figured Out; Vegas Doesn’t
Las Vegas currently does not have their arena situation settled. Seattle fans know all too well that everything starts with having an arena. It’s why the Sonics left to Oklahoma City. The fight over building an arena dragged on for years in Seattle and caused a lot of heartache and anger and resentment. There are currently three possible options for the NBA team in Vegas:
T-Mobile Arena (needs improvements), where the Golden Knights play and where they host the NBA League Cup games would seem like the obvious choice, but it’s not quite that simple. T-Mobile Arena is owned by a three-way partnership between MGM Resorts (42.5%), AEG (42.5%), and Golden Knights owner Bill Foley (15%). Any NBA team would be a tenant, not an owner, competing for dates with the Golden Knights, UFC events, and a packed concert schedule that’s already described as “getting full.” In addition, T-Mobile Arena would make upgrades to the existing arena, with Foley proposing a $300 million upgrade to bring it fully up to speed with a truly modern NBA arena with all the amenities and bells and whistles.
Foley said the $300 million improvement is “irrespective of basketball” because “we need a better arena.”
I don’t know about you, but to me “we need a better arena” and needing to drop over a quarter of a billion dollars on it sounds like they have a lot more work to do to be ready for an NBA expansion team.
The Oak View Group (OVG) Arena (not built yet), proposed a $10 billion, privately-funded entertainment megaplex that includes, among other things, an NBA arena. OVG is the same group that built Climate Pledge Arena. The initial proposed location has been withdrawn, so we don’t know where they would even build the resort. OVG knows what they’re doing and they’ve been around the block a few times with arena construction and building sports facilities ready for professional franchises to play in. But as of now, it’s still just an idea.
The LVXP Arena (also not built yet), proposing “the tallest resort in Las Vegas” on the north end of the Strip, south of the Sahara and next to the Fontainebleau. The price for this hasn’t been disclosed, but with all these things, this will also run into the billions of dollars.
Right now Vegas’s options are an arena that the owner says needs to be better, and two arenas that don’t exist.
Meanwhile, Seattle has Climate Pledge Arena, which is NBA-ready, does not need any upgrades, does not “need to be better” in order to be suitable for the NBA, and it is already built and exists and could host the NBA tomorrow if need be.
Advantage: Seattle.
Seattle Has the Ownership Figured Out; Vegas Doesn’t
We don’t know who is even going to own the team. There are three “credible groups” vying for NBA ownership in Vegas. One of the groups is rumored to involve NBA superstar LeBron James and the Fenway Sports Group. One of the groups could be Red Bull. Maybe it will be Bill Foley. Or maybe someone else entirely. We don’t know. The NBA probably doesn’t know.
There’s nothing against each of these ownership groups, but there’s so much that is uncertain and so much has to be figured out in Vegas.
Meanwhile, Seattle has no questions about who is best to own an NBA team: Samantha Holloway, owner of the Seattle Kraken, owner of Climate Pledge Arena, who has built relationships in the community and is a proven, successful major league sports owner.
Advantage: Seattle.
NBA superstar LeBron James is purportedly looking to be part of one of several groups vying for an NBA expansion team in Vegas. Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Seattle Has the Branding Figured Out; Vegas Doesn’t
Building a good brand takes time and research and effort.
Building a good brand takes time and research and effort. What will the team be called? What colors will they use? What will their logo look like? What’s their identity going to be?
Vegas hasn’t even started this process because they don’t know who the owner is or where the team will play. You can’t build a brand around “we’ll figure it out later.”
Meanwhile, Seattle gets to reclaim one of the most beloved brands in sports history. The Sonics name, colors, logos, and 41 years of history are sitting there waiting. When the team left in 2008, the settlement stated that all of that intellectual property would remain in Seattle for a future NBA team to use. While we don’t know for sure the Seattle NBA team would be called the Sonics, it seems very very unlikely they would go with something else. Even with two decades of absence, the Sonics brand remains very strong in Seattle.
The Sonics aren’t just a head start. It’s a multi-generational emotional connection with the Seattle fans who never stopped wearing Sonics gear and never stopped believing they’d come back. You can’t buy that kind of brand loyalty. You can’t manufacture it in a boardroom. It already exists.
Vegas would be starting from scratch. Seattle would be coming home.
Advantage: Seattle.
Market Size Matters
Las Vegas is the 40th largest media market in the United States, with around 750,000 TV households. Seattle is the 12th largest media market and the biggest market without an NBA team, with over 2 million TV households.
TV deals, local sponsorships, and corporate partnerships all scale with market size. Seattle’s metropolitan area has nearly 4 million people compared to Vegas’s 2.3 million. More importantly, Seattle’s median household income is over $120,000 compared to Vegas’s $68,000. The Las Vegas Metro GDP in 2022 was $160 billion, less than a third of Seattle’s $516 billion that same year. Tourism dollars are great, but Seattle has Amazon and Microsoft and Boeing and Starbucks as corporate sponsorship titans.,
Bigger market, more affluent fans, higher corporate spending power. Vegas might be exciting, but Seattle has a massive advantage when it comes to the things that actually gets these things done: money.
Advantage: Seattle.
Oct 23, 2021; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Kraken fans Patrick Crowthers (left) and Truong Luu take a selfie outside Climate Pledge Arena before a game between the Kraken and the Vancouver Canucks. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
Seattle Has an Existing Fanbase; Vegas Doesn’t
Here’s something Hill didn’t mention: there’s a difference between building a fanbase and inheriting one.
Vegas has proven it can support teams. The Golden Knights have built a genuinely passionate local fanbase, and that’s impressive. But they had the advantage of being the first major league team in a city hungry for professional sports. An NBA team would be the fourth major league franchise in a market that’s already divided its attention.
More importantly, Vegas would be starting with zero basketball history. No retired jerseys hanging in the rafters. No legends whose numbers mean something to the community. No “I was there when…” moments that bind generations of fans together.
Seattle doesn’t have this problem. As Cedric Walker, spokesperson for Seattle NBA Fans, puts it: “Seattle has been at the forefront of NBA expansion talks for years. This is a hoops town with more than 40 years of NBA history, and over 25 years with the WNBA.”
Sonics gear is still commonplace throughout Seattle. The fanbase never left. Sonics gear is still commonplace throughout Seattle. People named their kids after Shawn Kemp and Gary Payton. The Seattle NBA fans organization has already built a robust coalition of volunteers supporting a team that doesn’t even exist yet. There are Sonics Facebook groups with tens of thousands of followers. Seattle fans have been posting Sonics memories and #bringbackoursonics on social media for years, keeping the dream alive through sheer force of will.
Even after 18 years, the Sonics fanbase still gets talked about as one of the greats. Legendary rapper Ice Cube (who is not even from Seattle!) said about expansion: “The NBA should have replaced the SuperSonics a long time ago… It’s been a missing link in the league for so long. We need to put that piece back.” Everyone knows what a great basketball city Seattle is.
The Sonics may have left Seattle, but Seattle never left the Sonics.
Vegas would need to convince people to fall in love with a brand-new team with no local history. Seattle just needs to give people back what they never stopped loving.
Advantage: Seattle.
Seattle is Ready. Today. Right Now.
Vegas has potential. Vegas has possibilities. Vegas has “credible groups” and proposals and renderings of what might be someday, if they can figure it all out.
Seattle has the arena. Seattle has the owner. Seattle has the money. Seattle has the branding. Seattle has the fans.
Seattle has reality.
When Commissioner Adam Silver and the NBA Board of Governors sit down in July to discuss expansion, they’ll be looking at two very different presentations. Vegas will show them what they’re planning to build, who they’re hoping to find as an owner, and how they’re going to create a fanbase from nothing.
Seattle will show them keys to an arena that’s already hosting professional sports, an ownership group that’s already proven they can run a major league franchise, and 17 years of evidence that this city never stopped caring about basketball or the Sonics.
Vegas says they have the best foot to put forward. But which city is actually ready for an NBA team right now, without any additional planning or construction or figuring things out?
While Vegas is still tying its shoes, Seattle is already sprinting towards the finish line.
Advantage: Seattle.
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